A Guide To Nature’s Elements and Planning Your Next Adventure

Thursday Tropical Update: Limited Time Left For Development Chances

The tropics remain active, with two tropical waves being monitored in the Atlantic, although neither system poses a threat to the Alabama coast.

Central Tropical Atlantic — AL92

A tropical wave about 1,000 miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become less organized, and recent satellite data indicate the system does not have a closed circulation.

Conditions are expected to become less favorable as the wave encounters strong upper-level winds and drier air. The National Hurricane Center has lowered confidence in development, although there remains a 60% chance of formation over the next seven days.

Regardless of development, gusty winds and periods of heavy rain could affect portions of the Lesser Antilles Friday night and Saturday.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic — AL94

Another tropical wave, located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.

Conditions are expected to remain generally favorable for gradual development. The system could become a tropical depression late this week or this weekend as it moves westward to west-northwestward across the Atlantic.

The National Hurricane Center gives AL94 a 30% chance of formation over the next 48 hours and a 50% chance over the next seven days.

What This Means for Alabama

For now, there are no immediate tropical threats to the Alabama coast. Both systems are still far from the Gulf, and significant changes in organization and track would be needed before they become a concern for the northern Gulf Coast.

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